Starting on Saturday (06/22/2013), the new prices of fuel oil (BBM) which is more expensive prevailing. After four more years of enjoying premium and diesel fuel at Rp 4,500 per liter, motor vehicle owners must spend more to buy a liter of petrol.
Premium price rose Rp 2,000 to Rp 6,500 per liter and diesel rose Rp 1,000 to Rp 5,500 per liter. Subsidized fuel price hike is almost the same as in 2008, precisely May 24, the government hoist the premium price to Rp 6,000 a liter and diesel to Rp 5,500. It was the third time President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) to raise fuel prices during his reign.
And, as they had done before, that's easy to grab petrol tubs everywhere when the fire ignited, as well as the effect of subsidized fuel price hike. As a result, it's no secret, high infl ation will tow the fuel price hike. Just look at 2005 and 2008, when the government boosted gasoline and diesel prices. Infl ation rate when it reaches double digits, respectively 17.11 percent and 11.06 percent.
However, the subsidized fuel price hike this year, the government overly confident and dare to set a target inflation throughout 2013 only 7.2 percent. Indeed, hell, the first five months of inflation running quite slowly. Moreover, the last two months, April and May there defl ation. Thus, inflation during January to May, the new 2.28 percent.
Deflation two consecutive months which makes the government raised fuel prices more stable. "I still believe inflation could be 7.2 percent, not as high as when it is raised by Bank Indonesia at 7.76 percent," said Finance Minister Chatib Basri.
But, according to Arifianto Doddy, economist MaChung University, Malang, infl ansi this year could reach 8.1 percent. Therefore, any increase in subsidized fuel prices by 10 percent would cause inflation of 0.8 percent. So, with rising fuel prices about 33 percent would encourage infl ation as far as 2.5 percent.
Doddy estimates, the impact of subsidized fuel price increases on the prices of goods and services will take place until December 2013. In the first and second month which coincides with the month of fasting and Eid, the effect is very large indeed. "But, the next months will begin to decrease the impact," he said.
Only, Destri Damayanti, chief economist at Bank Mandiri, warned that if the government does not do a direct attempt to curb rising food prices, infl ation will soar to 8.2 percent. If the government is able to keep the food supply, inflation is only 7.8 percent this year.
Although can not be a benchmark, look in the mirror to experience rising prices of subsidized fuel in 2008 just four days before the month of fasting, when the infl ation October reached fantastic figures: 8.70 percent. Well, the fuel price hike in 2013, just two weeks before the month of Ramadan.
To be sure, the increase in subsidized fuel prices that sparked high inflation will erode purchasing power. Destri projects, purchasing power should be above the 5.3 percent growth this year will be 5.1 percent.
Difficult to grow above 6 percent
If you have this, economic growth above 6 percent can be threatened. Therefore, household consumption is still a mainstay, in addition to investment, to encourage the growth of our economy in 2013.
Conditions were worsened the balance of our trade is still relatively weak. Exports and imports will grow at a relatively low level. Evidently, last April, the value of Indonesia's exports dropped 2.8 percent to 14.69 billion U.S. dollars rather than March reached 15.02 billion U.S. dollars.
As a result, our trade balance report card that had the blue in March flushed again in April. Our balance of trade deficit during April 1.62 billion U.S. dollars.
During January to April 2013, our trade balance report card is also red because of a deficit of 1.85 billion U.S. dollars. Garanya, the value of Indonesia's exports in the first four months of this year is only 60.11 billion U.S. dollars, while imports reached 61.96 billion U.S. dollars. And, it is not impossible trade deficit will take place throughout the year.
If that happens, then repeat what happened last year. In 2012, the trade balance deficit of 1.65 billion U.S. dollars, which is the first time since 1961 sit defi ago.
Moreover, subsidized fuel price hike was not able to halt the consumption of gasoline and diesel. Lah, the evidence, the government adds fuel quota this year of 46 million kiloliters (kl) to 48 million kl. Fuel imports have certainly improved the trade balance deficit could make it again.
Export performance continued to cluck against imports will certainly drag down economic growth this year. Hence, the government corrected assuming growth to just 6.3 percent, from 6.8 percent previously. Economy in the first quarter grew only 6.02 percent is also taken into consideration the government cut its economic growth forecast in 2013.
However, the government spelled out ambitious targets. Therefore, projecting Destri, this year's economic growth rate stuck at 6 percent. Indeed, the rise in fuel prices beginning it will be painful. But, for the medium and long term, the policy will be a good impact. "In the future the government could allocate funds for fuel subsidy was to the other sectors," he added
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